The folks behind the new ultra-mega-Clearwire claim that for the rock bottom price of $5 billion, they’ll be able to offer mobile WiMax via 140 million POPs in fifty U.S. markets. But I’ve noticed that some analysts aren’t so sure, and think the real price tag could more than double those estimates. One analyst thinks it will cost $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion per quarter for at least 18 months to reach 50 markets. Including backhaul costs, that could bring the total to more like $12 billion. Hogwash and poppycock, Clearwire exec Perry Satterlee tells Unstrung:

I’ve been doing this long enough to know I’ll probably be re-quoting those projections in two years when the project runs out of cash, but perhaps they have access to some dark telecom magic that obliterates deployment snags, overspending and human incompetence. Of course sugar daddies like Google, Intel and Comcast won’t want to leave the project half-finished. Comcast wants to offer wireless broadband, Google wants to use the network to become an even larger advertising god, and Intel just wants their decade of relentless WiMax hype to pan out.

Meanwhile, the creation of the new ultra-mega-Clearwire isn’t official until regulators give their ok. In the interim, Sprint and Clearwire are continuing their existing, independent deployment plans. Clearwire this week announced that after they’re done launching mobile WiMax in Portland, they’ll be taking aim at Atlanta, Los Angeles and Grand Rapids. So far, it looks like those of you in launch cities will pay $60 or less for around 3-4Mbps.
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